Quick hit here…
This is an economic problem for TV that will not be evident for many months. Here’s why:
Ad rates online are at least 1/3rd lower than TV/Print rates. Migrating the same viewership online cuts your revenue by 2/3rds at minimum. Even if the writers get back to work, a good chunk of viewership has been lost for a long time. That is, that viewership will take months to come back and the TV rates will drop as a result (no reach, no high CPM). With less money at the studios and internet companies already on the cheap for original content development, writers will lose money. networks will lose money.
where does all that money go then that would have gone to TV ads?
utilities: search, email, social networks. new site development.
in otherwords, it will be spread way out between 1000s of media properties and technologies.
in fact, like global warming, it’s already happening and any change now will simply lessen the damage.
Writers – just go work on the internet now. get in before the rush of all the underpaid writers comes in late 08/09.
Studios – better figure out this online, iptv, and mobile thing quickly. Expect to need alternatives (subscriptions, itunes, huge archived downloads, live programming, more hd, straight to tv movies, etc. etc.) to overpriced tv spotsto subsidize underperforming concepts, shows and departments.
users/viewers – better learn to write and produce. UGC stinks now and the quality of entertainment – in terms of excellent creative output relative to noise – is very low.
anyone read brave new world recently?