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Archive for August 11th, 2008

Ah yes, reality.  Finally the novelty wears off for people. Others are reporting that making iPhone apps won’t make you instantly rich. Go figure.  As I say below, as one had to do was Do The Math. 6 months ago and you might have saved a buck or 10,000.

Below is what I posted on August 11:

The hype of the download volume and revenue of the app store is pretty substantial.

The numbers:

  • Users have now downloaded more than 60 million programs for the iPhone and iPod touch, or roughly 2 million per day.
  • Revenue from those applications came to about $30 million. 70% went to the developers; Apple kept 30%. (Free apps apparently accounted for the vast majority of the downloads, since average revenue per download is 50 cents.)
  • If sales continue at the current pace, Apple stands to clear at least $360 million a year. “This thing’s going to crest a half a billion, soon,” Jobs told the Wall Street Journal. “Who knows, maybe it will be a $1 billion marketplace at some point in time…. I’ve never seen anything like this in my career for software.”
  • Of the $21 million that developers cleared in the first month, roughly $9 million went to the creators of the top 10 best sellers. Sega Corp., for example, says it sold more than 300,000 copies of its $9.99 Super Monkeyball game in 20 days.
  • Jobs believes a rich array of applications is what will distinguish the iPhone from competing cell phones. “Phone differentiation used to be about radios and antennas and things like that,” he told the Journal. “We think, going forward, the phone of the future will be differentiated by software.”

Some claim there’s a nice way to make a living in this.

Wired reports on the above and restates the claims it will be a billion dollar market place soon.

I say DO THE MATH.

Let’s say they actually did sell $30,000,000 in apps.  I think it’s safe to say there are at least 10,000 developers slaving away on these apps.  Maybe as high as 100,000.  So each developer is going to split between $3,000 – $30,000.  From the above you can assume that most of the money went to the top 10 apps (all developed by the big companies).  So an independent developer is probably pulling maybe $500 for this.

That’s not enough to sustain an independent developer market place.  Well, actually, it’s the kind of market dynamic that sustains most of the music and tv industry.  So scratch my logic.  Let me put it this way then.  For all you GET RICH QUICK folks… this is not a way to get rich quick.  Nor were facebook apps, or .NET or XML or semantic web or open social or casual games and ever other manner of EMERGING PLATFORMS.

Another set of numbers.  A basic interactive ad campaign development project goes between $10,000 and $75000 in development and typically only takes 2-5 developers 3 weeks to execute.  It’s boring work a lot of the time.  It’s not using the latest and greatest.  It takes interacting with humans and doing phone calls. BUT it’s still less work and far more profitable than building emerging apps.

The app store numbers are impressive, especially with a user base (savvy internet users) that hate to pay for things.  The platform is real and substantial.

but…

Before you throw away the current gig you have and start “IphoneAppDevShop.com”, do the math.

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Jason Cawley gives us another immense post with a semi formal argument about quantum computing and the universe as a quantum computer.  It is a response to Hector Zenil’s interactions/postings with/about Seth Lloyd.

I’m in agreement with this:

At some point you have to go look at the actual world. And when you do, you will find yourself at the bottom of a well looking out through a straw at an immensity. Honesty and rationality start with an elementary humility in the face of this inescapable fact. This does not mean you can’t know things; you can. It does mean you can’t know everything.

It’s a challenging post which befits the challenge of uncovering the limits of knowledge, quantum computer and “just how does this universe thing work.”

We can’t know everything, but there’s no limit to how much we can know (meaning, there’s not enough time in our lifetimes for us to reach even the formal limit!).  Chew on that.

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Talk about language.  For the longest time I had a post up about ICanHasCheezburger.com.  It gets more steady traffic than most of my other posts.  After quick research, it’s because this blog is listed 4th on google for “I can haz cheezburger.”  This was quite hilarious to me.

Funny thing is… and, I mean, really funny if you’re into this sort of Interwebs thing, I actually misspelled it!  It’s “I can HAS cheezburger.”

Why is this funny?

Because the whole damn gimmick for LOLCATS is internet speak and misspellings.  Where this fits into grand scheme of language and humor, beats me!  misspelling a misspelling is pretty hilarious.  Especially when you consider this misspelling and interwebs language twist/inside joke gets over 12,000,000 visitors a month still.

Yes, as I said in an earlier post today, it’s Monday!

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I’m very curious about the phrases we use that sound so hollow but carry a great deal of unspoken meaning.

How many times have you heard someone say this, “He’s a nice guy…” and it’s usually always followed by a “but…” (sometimes an unspoken “but”).

We all know what that means.  And if you don’t, you don’t want to be known as the “he’s a nice guy” guy.

Where did this way of talking about people come from?  Why do we avoid saying what we really mean when we all know what the phrase is really covering up?  When does a phrase go from a figure of speech to a full on cue to something pejorative?

For fun (and data collection!) check out all these blog posts and articles and advice columns that use “he’s a nice guy.”

google search

Blog search

Here’s some etymology for you on it.  It’s pretty funny what the word “nice” really brings with it 🙂

 

And after rereading this post a couple of times I think, “it’s a nice post.”  And for those that want to understand my real meaning.  This post is pretty lame.

Yeah, it’s Monday morning.

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