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Posts Tagged ‘gustav’

Atlantic Basin Live Storms

Atlantic Basin Live Storms

Evacuation

90-95% evacuation is pretty amazing when you think about it.

Why did people leave this time?

  1. 3 years, apparently, is too short of time to forget the consequences of a major disaster
  2. Mayor Nagin’s over the top “Storm of the Century” – “You’ll be hacking yourself out with an axe” advisement to citizens
  3. Upgraded forecasts to category 4s and 5s.
  4. Accurate prediction of landfall early on (can reinforce to citizens of a particular area for 3-5 days)
  5. Organization and instruction from officials ( that leadership thing, ya know!)

Basically, the consequences became clear enough to most people and their were leaders guiding people.

Now, without the pictures of people on roofs and loss of life, will this storm leave an impression to last another 3 years?

Levees

With Gustav, we get instant accountability for the government, Corp. of engineers and other organizations spending our tax dollars.  Will the levees hold?

From the news, it doesn’t look like it.

Gustav was not a direct hit nor a major category 3 and 4 and the levees don’t look good.  The 3 years of re-engineering clearly have not strengthened the city to be able to handle this.

Will this public display bring accountability for people spending our money to fix things?

Probably not without the pictures of death and destruction.

Global Warming

Climate change disbelievers need quite an explanation for the erosion of the wetlands and the current season of weather.  From the Iowa floods to 3 tropical systems live right now, to the monsoon in Arizona…

Worse than the increase in weather events is the desctruction of natural protection like wetlands or the lack of rain that causes these hot dry droughts in California that create a 6 month fire season seem.  The problem with erosion of natural protection (which is far easier to show human causes for) is that even normal weather events become destructive.

Methinks it’s going to take far bigger consequences to sway the opponents of climate change.

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The forecasters are a little loopy for not telling people this thing is going to be a cat4 or cat5 on landfall.  They’ve under forecast this thing since the beginning.

The reality is Gustav will spend almost the longest possible time over the warmest Gulf waters.  It’s going to spend 2 days over the warmest waters and it’s already a sustained category 4.

Haven’t we learned that people do not respond to news reports and warnings that down play possible destruction and power of these things.

Just look at this monster.

Gustav blasts Cuba

Gustav blasts Cuba

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I think these pictures show you the limits of our ability to predict (even when 1000s of people and CPUs are put to work).

TS Hanna:

Hanna Predicted Paths

Hanna Predicted Paths

Presidential Election Polls:

Real Clear Politics real time poll tracking

Real Clear Politics real time poll tracking

I’ve talked about it a lot on this blog.  No bigger point to make here other than the idea that we’re not going to be able to predict a winner in the election or guess the landfall of these hurricanes much quicker than the event actually happening.

It’s interesting to try and predict though.

Question is, are we affecting the election through the predictions and publications?

Probably not as much a question for the hurricanes, though you never know if there’s some weird butterfly effect.

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